If you live for a long time, you will have various experiences; it was Black Monday in 1987/10, and the Lehman shock in 2008/9. I changed jobs during the Lehman shock and invested in stocks in a few years, so I studied well.
As far as I can see from recent news, it seems that the NY Dow Average is hitting an all-time high every day, and it seems that the Nikkei Average is also rising due to that. This is the 60th book by Mr. Masuda, the author of this book. The characteristic of his calligraphy is that he explains it after sometimes processing it in an easy-to-understand manner based on objective primary data.
He asserted that US stocks would soon collapse in a complete bubble state, and also stated the reason. The timing was not specified, but I thought it would be around the end of the US presidential election as soon as possible, and I was convinced that preparations should be made for it.
Below are the points I was concerned about.
・There is a rule of thumb in the American financial industry that “if the Bank of Japan goes from a low policy interest rate that has continued for a long time to the first interest rate hike, the world will inevitably face a recession phase.” The Bank of Japan interest rate hike for the second time this year is probably like Godzilla, which has surfaced, screaming before landing. Will Japanese stock prices fall when the yen appreciates (p13) Stock appreciation over the past 3-4 years was achieved by suppressing wages due to inflation and depreciation of the yen (p15)
・Yen carry is a vicious cycle of buying financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.) from some country and trying to get profit or dividends from price increases, first borrow the currency of another country where interest rates are low and the price is likely to drop without directly buying the currency of that country, then buying target financial assets with the borrowed currency, borrowing yen at 0.5% in Japan and buying Australian government bonds with a yield of 4.5% (p18) yen appreciation → sale of target currency net assets → further yen appreciation, and the least amount of damage is People and companies living in Japan and living in yen (p19)
・Labor productivity in Japan is above the average value of developed countries, yet wages remained low, and real wages continued to fall, so the standard of living also fell. The biggest reason for this is that the government and the Bank of Japan adopted a policy to further advance the depreciation of the yen due to abnormally low interest rates of zero in nominal terms and negative in reality only the inflation rate (p23)
・Since the high-tech bubble burst in 2000-2002, America has not made technological innovations to enrich people's lives, bought stocks with large market capitalization with money borrowed from Japan at real negative interest rates, maintained the illusion that real GDP had risen simply by raising the value of huge oligopoly companies, and barely cash flow by attracting funds from around the world (p25) Investors around the world, including America, use yen carry transactions steeped in yen depreciation They are devouring huge profits by buying rice stocks with borrowed yen (p27)
・The reality of the information that GPU sales are so good that supply cannot keep up with demand due to the boom in generative AI is largely supported by mass purchases by companies developing businesses that require the Magnificent 7 data center (p41) apparently fabricated by fictitious transactions that are fraudulent, and there is a very high possibility that it was not true (p42) Even if neither sales nor profit actually increased by 1 cent, sales on the books There is a rapid increase, and since rental profit margins are also rising (p46) Enron also disclosed financial results where sales and profits were greatly increased by making circular transactions with affiliated companies, and they think that the future of NVIDIA will be more similar to Enron than Cisco (p57) it was adopted when Enron went bankrupt and was delisted, and it was impossible to continue incorporating it into the S&P 500 (p58)
・Generative AI has a major problem where “training costs” before being sent out to customers increase rapidly as performance increases (p64) problems with the application of AI to manufacturing, 1) computer and electronic equipment manufacturing is the lowest 15th place (p68), and it has dropped out of the top 15 in terms of growth forecasts for the next six months, 2) automobile manufacturing is not within 15th place, and generative AI is the only killer content that enables fully autonomous driving It was expected (p69)
・Apple has always maintained solitude in circular transactions involving GPUs centered on NVIDIA, regardless of circular transactions involving generative AI centered on Microsoft = Open AI, but in addition to having already abandoned EV development that runs completely autonomously, it will also withdraw its own development route for generative AI in the future in mid-2024/6, and announced that it will install the Microsoft = Open AI Coalition Chat GPT series on its smartphones Almost at the same time as I learned that it had fallen into the military gate of the Microsoft = Open AI Coalition, Apple's stock price, which had been unfortunate until then, became number one in market capitalization (p95)
・EVs, generative AI, and humanoid robots, which have been the focus of high-tech technology development for the past 10 years or more, have something in common, and the direction they are aiming for at the starting point was wrong, so in the case of (p98) EVs, the reality is that the more development progresses, the weight of the battery itself increases at an accelerated rate as it becomes an automobile that carries heavy things such as large trucks and buses. You fall into a cul-de-sac where the amount of things you can actually carry and the number of people hardly increases. This is not something that can be improved by changing lithium batteries to other metals, and since lithium has the highest energy density among metals existing on Earth, it is absolutely insurmountable (p100)
・Immediately after the “Trump” support declaration by Elon Musk, “withdrawal of EV development/practical application support” was included in the Republican Party's outline for the presidential election (p107) in the American EV industry, there was a “dream condition” that was expected to dramatically accelerate the spread of EVs if this was met, and the price of EVs that can run 300 miles (480 kilometers) on a single charge will break the average price of a new car for gasoline cars as a whole (p111) (p111). It had already been met, and considering subsidies, it was met in 2017-2018 in developed countries. However, the reason why it did not progress slowly (p112) was not because costs dropped due to the introduction of revolutionary technology, but because they were sold at a knock down (p113) discount strategy because discounts on Tesla cars in the used car market were unstoppable, and the price difference between new cars and used cars (the used car market is 2-3 times that of new cars) continued to widen, so it is necessary to bear 6-70% of the new car price for battery replacement (p114) It is completely unsuitable for cars as a practical means of transportation (p115)
・How much global warming progressed in the 140 years from 1880 to 2020 is just a change of 2 degrees from 57 to 59 degrees in Fahrenheit and 1,1 degrees from 13.9 to 15.0 degrees Celsius (p130) there are two sophisticated automatic control devices working in the Earth's atmospheric temperature, 1) as carbon dioxide increases, plant growth is promoted to prevent the rise in temperature, and 2) the amount of water vapor emitted from the surface of the water increases as the temperature gets higher, and clouds in the sky Reduces direct exposure to solar radiant heat (white clouds reflect radiant heat from the sun) and lowers the temperature (p132, 133)
・Even when limited to the past 600 million years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has remained at about 1500-6000 ppm, and concentrations falling below 200 ppm in the mid-19th century, which is about 170 years ago from now, were at a last-minute level for plants to grow. There is a high possibility that the amount of carbon dioxide that humans have increased since the Industrial Revolution contributed to the growth and prosperity of plants in general (p135)
・The number of victims of cold weather can be seen to reach 10 times the number of victims due to heat, even when looking at North and South America, Europe, and Asia (p136) Humans have succeeded in reducing damage from climate-related disasters, but there has been little progress on natural disasters that are not climate-related (p138)
・The fact that the total weight of non-ferrous metals required only for EV battery manufacturing is 6 times the weight of non-ferrous metal parts of engine cars is very important (p158) Promoting the spread of EVs is an extremely environmentally friendly economic policy where all kinds of resources are bombarded, excessive equipment is built domestically, and as a result, supports the current Chinese economic system that promotes cheap sales and exports (p159) lithium is completely unnecessary for engine cars The fact that cobalt is essential for EV batteries makes it even more difficult to spread EVs, and both are serious sources of pollution (p159)
・Fortunately for humanity as a whole, the fact that such an automobile EV conversion theory is nothing more than a cake drawn in the picture is that lithium prices, which are the most important raw materials for EV batteries, have crashed, and it has become clear that lithium battery prices have also entered a low trend for a long period of time, and what has risen to 1 kilogram = 80 dollars in 2023/8 has recently dropped to the first half of the 10 dollar range (p162) The price of lithium batteries is similar, 150- per kWh in the early 2023 level What is troublesome about lithium battery fires, which have peaked at 180 dollars and recently reached 100 dollars or less (p162) is troublesome is the fact that when lithium burns up, oxygen is discharged during the combustion process, so even if it is covered with water or a flame retardant smoke screen, etc., the fire does not abate at all, and on the contrary, it only burns and spreads (p163)
・The energy density per volume (an index of how much energy can be packed into a fixed volume) is that the density of batteries using various materials is inefficient, and in the case of gas fuel < liquid fuel (ethanol < gasoline < light oil) (p165) gasoline, it is 42 times by weight and 14 times by volume compared to the upper limit of lithium batteries (p166)
・Of the 500 companies and 503 stocks adopted in the S&P 500, there are only 25% 125 companies that perform better than the S&P 500, and the reason the stock is 503 is because there are also companies that adopt 2 types of shares, with voting rights and without voting rights, such as Alphabet (Google) (p172) during the subprime loan bubble (2007-09), 40-50% performed better than the S&P 500 (p172) The characteristic of this bubble is that purchases are concentrated on stocks with large market capitalization where price movements would otherwise be cautious, so the group of stocks with really good price movements can be narrowed down to about 10 companies, let alone 125 companies (p173)
・Amazon is now the largest e-commerce (online shopping) company that is no longer being pushed or pushed, but when America Online Line was at the top of the industry, what Amazon was particular about, was controlling the last mile development network until it was delivered to consumers not only in its own country but also in as many countries around the world as possible. To that end, it continued to invest in large computers and peripherals for processing simple but huge calculations, and after a break in delivery network construction, it advanced into the cloud business and dramatically improved profitability and became a high-tech giant (p178)
・The productivity of government debt rapidly improved from the beginning of the 1990s, when GDP increased by 1 dollar (principal can be recovered but interest rates cannot be covered), and 1) it rose to 4 dollars in 2000 when the high-tech bubble was at its peak, and probably the high-tech bubble that burst in 2000-2002 was probably the last bubble (accompanied by a substantial increase in affluence) for the American economy (p183 ) 2) In 2012, GDP increased by only 20 cents due to an increase in debt of 1 dollar, the trigger for the beginning of a market capitalization bubble where capitalists compressed workers' shares to the limit; 3) Productivity, which had picked up slightly under the Trump administration from 2017, settled below 60 cents under the 2021 Biden administration, and the Trump administration is skeptical about climate change crisis theories of green revolutionaries and globalists in European countries It is callous about possible energy and the conversion of automobiles to EVs, and has prevented it from being used for projects that use government debt as death money (p185)
・I think the market capitalization bubble was caused by major enterprise managers who saw that the share of workers could not be reduced any more, not workers, as a means of transferring income from small to medium enterprises to major enterprises, regardless of whether they are listed or unlisted (p187)
