This is an expanded and revised edition written by Mr. Masuda, who I have been following every time a new publication comes out, in August, 11 years ago from now. Strangely enough, I wrote a review of the original edition 11 years ago today.
I knew on the internet that the revised edition would come out in June this year and I had made a reservation, but it finally arrived, and I was able to enjoy this book for the past week, taking time out of my time working from home.
Just before the COVID-19 crisis began (early February 2, Reiwa 2), I counted from the cars I bought after making a loan in the 2nd month after becoming a member of society, and I rode 4 cars, but I finally decided to let go of the car. It was a decision I thought I should buy it if any inconvenience occurred, but I don't feel any inconvenience at all. Thanks to COVID-19, I found that walking around the house for about 1 hour is healthier than driving alone as a distraction.
Well, as for the content of this book, the future of electric cars is also written as an addition (8th Mortal Sin) as a point that was not touched upon in the original edition. There is a lot of discussion about electric cars and autonomous driving in the world, but as far as I know, I think Mr. Masuda is the only one who has firmly refuted it in the book. I myself work in the automobile-related industry, so it was a very helpful idea.
Below are the points I was concerned about. As always, Mr. Masuda's book has many points to write, but since this is a revised edition, I'd like to write about the 8th Mortal Sin that was added.
・Cars have taken the king of everyday transportation from railways in developed countries around the world, and the Japanese economy, where the two major metropolitan areas of Tokyo and Osaka have entered a “high consumer society” while maintaining a high degree of railway dependency, is the only exception among developed countries (introduction, p3)
・The reason why America has grown so much is that it has grown led by domestic demand due to the influx of young, poor people who accepted immigrants from all over the world, but who had too much motivation to work. This was in contrast to the European powers that went outside due to colonialism across the board. Furthermore, due to the perfect balance between natural resource reserves and progress in science and technology, it did not establish a colonial empire, but grew into a country that pioneered the cutting edge of the world with high energy efficiency within its own country (preface, p36)
・Two important points where it is impossible to say that automobile civilization is safe unless even petroleum is exhausted, 1) the number of cars sold continues to decline, peaking at 17.55 million units in 2016 even when crude oil prices fall, and 2) the annual mileage per adult peaked in the mid-2000s and continues to decline even when gasoline prices fall (preface, p41)
・The biggest problem with cars that run on electricity or hydrogen is that both power generation from renewable energy sources and automobiles powered by electricity and hydrogen waste far more energy than fossil fuels (chapter 8, p319) will scream at such a high cost, and they will return to active use of “natural gas,” which is the cleanest and cheapest energy source in the world. The society that will be realized as a result is probably similar to how the metropolitan area of modern Japan spread all over the world as it was (p320)
・Temperature measuring devices installed 1.2 to 1.5 meters above ground have risen markedly, especially in populated areas and along arterial roads in the northern hemisphere. This can be explained simply by the spread of air conditioning in private households, and air conditioning was standard equipment in most automobiles. There are various techniques to raise the temperature, but there is no technology to raise it. By simply solidifying warm air with refrigerant and replacing it with another location, the more popular air conditioning becomes, the temperature rises about one sheet of thin skin due to exhaust heat from outdoor air conditioners and automobiles, but there is no sign that the entire troposphere or seawater temperature, which spans 9-17 kilometers above ground, continues to warm up in the same way as the temperature on the surface of the earth (p323)
・Assuming that equipment capacity can be fully utilized, solar power and wind power are cheap; solar power is 44% of nuclear power and 25% of wind power, but the operating rate of nuclear power plants is 90%, sunlight is 9.5%, and wind power is 16.6%; considering the operating rate and estimated operating years, nuclear power is advantageous; if solar power is 10.4 times nuclear power, and wind power is 3.4 times (p325, 326)
・Natural gas power generation is a combined power generation with the highest conversion efficiency (about 65%) from the primary energy source to electricity among all current power generation methods. This is a method of increasing power generation by using exhaust heat from turning a gas turbine to boil water to turn a steam turbine (p328)
・Tesla recently became profitable due to profit and loss for the current fiscal year, but every time they sell an electric car, they get the right to sell one engine car, but since they sell that right to another car company, the reason the main business isn't working is that the price is high, the mileage on a single charge is exaggerated, and the damage to the human body when an accident occurs is large. In order to reduce the total weight, parts that would otherwise have to be made of strong metal are made into plastic to reduce weight (p333)
・Just because the automobile society dies out does not mean that the entire mode of transportation called automobiles will decline, and it is a field that emphasizes practicality in fields protected by Japan, which has been regenerated as a peaceful nation, such as light vehicles, trucks, motorcycles, and scooters, as a field that continues to expand. The major decline is in the field where profit margins were large, with large private passenger cars and American Bixley excels at (p337)
・However, the status of companies that did not have a truck/motorcycle/light vehicle division from the beginning, or companies that have been transferred to other affiliated companies, or have sold the entire division to other automobile manufacturers, will decline. Toyota trucks probably introduced technology from Hino, Nissan sold Nissan diesel to Volvo, and now UD trucks and light cars are OEMs. (p339)
・The company called Toyota is a company that has been helped quite a bit by good luck, and the reason why the Kanban system was established is that since it was an automobile company in Nagoya in the era when new factories could not be built or expanded in the Tokyo/Osaka area, there is a big factor that they were able to freely carry in materials and carry out products using wide roads around Nagoya. Similarly, Honda and Suzuki, which had their headquarters in Hamamatsu, were able to manage extremely compressed inventory. (p340)
・There was a huge difference in planning for factory network construction between Toyota and Nissan in the mid-1950s, and Nissan was unable to freely expand main factories and assemble subcontracted factories, and at that point, the difference should have been solved with a delay of a few years, but the Industrial Restriction Law was enforced in the Tokyo area in 1959, and the Factory Restriction Law was enforced in the Osaka area in 1964, and any new expansion of factories and universities was prohibited in these two major metropolitan areas (p341) This law was abolished in 2002 ( p357)
・Numerical targets are extremely important at the forefront of sales, but management must not commit; as soon as an organization sets a numerical target, it pushes forward only to achieve it. It may be effective in the short term, but there is no way it will last (p352)
・The reason why high economic growth led to stable growth, low growth, zero growth, and negative growth is clear; this is because “urbanization,” which should be called the driving force for economic growth, stopped, and the inflow population into the three major metropolitan areas drastically decreased. If you really want to increase labor productivity, you should not take policies that hold people back to regions with low productivity, and even if they are not population migration incentives, you should take policies that do not interfere with population movement from regions to the three major metropolitan areas (p363). Whereas in Europe and America where road traffic congestion becomes a bottleneck and population urbanization of over 90% is unrealistic, there is a railway network, and within the Tokyo/Osaka area, it is sufficiently compatible with urbanization (p363)
