marginal states

Ryu Shuhei's “Marginal Nation” sharply depicts Japan's structural limitations from the four axes of population, economy, technology, and institutions. The author first points out the danger of an economy dependent on domestic demand. In Japan, where domestic demand accounts for 70% of GDP, a population of at least 100 million people is required for economic independence, but now that declining birthrate and aging population are progressing, that assumption is collapsing (p19). Nevertheless, politicians and bureaucrats adhere to precedentalism, and structures that prioritize careers and do not take risks prevent reforms (p34).
Demographic statistics are also just simple calculations from birth rates, and they do not reflect environmental changes that population decline has on local communities (p38). As a result, the sustainability of health care, welfare, and regional industries is distorted. Furthermore, politics has given preferential treatment to the elderly, who are voting fields, and investment in young people has been neglected (p136).
Meanwhile, globalization and advances in technology have given birth to a new concept called “occupational longevity.” Every time innovative technology is introduced, existing occupations disappear, and personnel are drastically reduced (p91). What is needed in this age of change is “the ability to read the flow of the world” and “the ability to eat in any situation” rather than knowledge (p99). Advances in AI and autonomous driving technology will accelerate the collapse of the employment structure while bringing about liberation from labor (p283, p305).
The health care system has also reached its limits. Bringing up European-style “reservation-based medical care,” he pointed out the fragility of Japan's “can be examined anytime” model. It also warns about the lack of transparency in the current situation where most clinical trial data is created under the initiative of pharmaceutical companies (p150). Medical/nursing expenses for the elderly put pressure on finances, and increased spending after a healthy life expectancy further tightens national finances (p157).
On the economic side, it depicts the fatigue of capitalism through the decline (p171) of “profit priority” companies that have forgotten their consumer orientation. At the same time, new markets such as virtual currency, NFTs, and blockchain are showing a movement to eliminate the old old model (p236, p247). The expansion of the digital economy beyond countries is changing the meaning of currency and headquarters location.
Technological innovation is shrinking rather than creating jobs. Whereas past industrial revolutions used “fire” to create new jobs, the information revolution became a “revolution of job loss” (p330). Dealer networks, office workers, logistics, and even transportation are being swallowed up by the wave of automation, and the “meaning of labor,” which is the foundation of society, is being lost (p301, p305).
In conclusion, the author explains that what humanity has been aiming for through technology is “liberation from labor,” and that the conventional idea of “life through labor” itself has reached its limit (p336). At that time, nations also lose the foundations that support conventional systems, economies, and values, and transform into “marginal nations.”