I retired due to my birthday last year, but this is a new book recently published by Mr. Noguchi, who I have been indebted to since I became a member of society in 1981, and this is my 25th book. Even though they are over 20 years older than me, not only have they mastered the latest devices, but books on generative AI have also been published, and I have been very helpful.
ChatGPT and voice input, which were featured in it, were the ones I started using later this year, and they are powerful enough to change my life. I was drawn to it when I saw the title of the book Mr. Noguchi wrote, and by reading this book, I was able to understand that “America is about to change under the second Trump administration.”
While various authors have pointed out that “there is a possibility that America's hegemony will end,” I personally have always thought “that won't happen,” but by reading this book, I thought it might be possible while watching the gold price, which has continued to rise recently.
Below are the points I was concerned about.
・In financial markets, current transactions are carried out in anticipation of what will happen in the future, and as a result, future situations are factored into current prices. The imposition of high-rate tariffs by the Trump administration was expected to have a serious impact on the global economy, shrink GDP, and reduce transaction demand for money. Therefore, if the money stock is constant, demand for holding money assets increases, and as a result, the price of money rises, in other words, the interest rate falls. This is a phenomenon usually called “escape from dangerous assets to safe assets,” where stock prices fell due to flight to safe assets, and interest rates declined (p27)
・Mr. Trump insisted that Japan's consumption tax and EU value-added tax be regarded as a non-tariff barrier, and America imposes tariffs by converting them into tariff rates (p29)
・How to calculate the mutual tariff rate: The New York Times pointed out that when the import value of American goods from the country in question is “T”, the “mutual tariff rate = (D/T) ➗ 2” is calculated as “D” (D/T) 2” (p30)
・A trade deficit does not necessarily mean economic weakness; America has continued to have a permanent trade deficit, which places America at the center of the global financial system, and has promoted domestic investment and technological innovation through capital inflows. Tariff policies that deliberately seek to destroy this structure impair America's international presence and innovation-led economy from the ground up. What is particularly problematic is that if domestic return (reshoarding) of the manufacturing industry is promoted, the international supply chain of fabless manufacturing companies such as Apple and Nvia may be destroyed. These companies have built high competitiveness by outsourcing manufacturing processes overseas and concentrating on design, development, and brand strategies; if this is forcibly returned to the domestic market, production costs will skyrocket and innovation will stagnate. As a result, America will relinquish its technological advantage in the global economy (p39)
・It was necessary for the Japanese government to directly criticize the idea of mutual tariffs itself and demand their withdrawal; mutual tariffs are a serious challenge to free trade that supported the expansion of the world economy after World War II, and not only do they have a serious impact on the economic activities of countries where tariffs are imposed, but since American consumers are responsible for tariffs, serious negative effects such as price increases also occur in America, and On the other hand, it was necessary to point out that production activities cannot be expected to return to America (p47)
・The decline in export unit prices of automobile manufacturers in yen terms is also influenced by exchange rates, but not only that, it is thought that it is largely due to the fact that Japanese automobile manufacturers have lowered export prices. With the aim of not reducing the number of units sold in America, the export price of ENBASE was lowered by 25% in an attempt to keep sales prices within the US at almost the same level as before additional tariffs were imposed on a dollar basis, but as a result of the exchange rate moving higher in yen, the dollar-based price only fell by 18.9%, and the market price in America rose 6.1%, so the number of units sold decreased by 3.9% (p85)
・America continues to have a current account deficit, and the reason why it can continue is because investment in America continues. It is sometimes explained that this is because the American dollar is the key currency, but it is necessary to consider why the dollar is recognized as an international key currency. The reason for this is that they have trust in America. This means that 1) the separation of powers functions so that power is not concentrated in one dictator, 2) the independence of central banks is guaranteed, 3) stable policies are carried out with at least two institutional systems, 4) people with abilities gather from all over the world because free research activities are recognized, and 5) they maintain military and geopolitical superiority. Therefore, even if dollar assets are held, there is little risk of default, and it is certain that they can be recovered with sufficient returns in the future. These factors overlap and the dollar maintains its position as a key currency, and this position is the fundamental reason why America can continue to have a current account deficit, in other words, what is basic is trust that the American economy will never go bankrupt and will continue to grow into the future (p97)
・President Trump has set out policies that fundamentally shake the most important institutional framework; 1) disrupts the international economic order by imposing arbitrary and high-pressure tariffs on trade partners by trampling on the principles of free trade; America is harming its position as a reliable economic partner by itself; 2) reducing research funding for basic science and universities, and is about to break the foundation of long-term innovation, and therefore “the basics of prosperity The “mechanism” is being destroyed from the ground up (p99)
・Of the value of iPhones exported from China to the US, the added value produced in China is less than 4% of the total, and the added value at the design stage added by America accounts for 30% or more of the sales price, but this is not recorded as a trade surplus (p103) Even if the final assembly process of the iPhone were to be transferred from China etc. to the United States, the added value in America would only increase by a few percent as a result In response to that, if efficiency tariffs are applied to iPhone imports and the current production process is destroyed, all activities to produce added value for iPhones may not be established, in other words, a company called Apple may not be established. This would be a huge loss for America. What appears in balance of payments statistics is a transaction where iPhones produced in China are imported into America, and in contrast to this, almost no other transactions appear in international statistics (p105)
・The expansion of America's economic balance deficit is often viewed as a problem, and there is a possibility that a major factor is the progress of fabless. If so, the expansion of the economic balance deficit is not due to the deterioration of the American economy, but rather can be interpreted as a result of sophistication (p107) Mr. Trump probably understands that part of the tariffs are borne by American consumers, but in the case of fabless companies (Apple, etc.), how important is it that American companies bear a significant portion of the tariffs imposed by America (p146)
・Mr. Trump, who was not frightened by falling stock prices, immediately reacted to the rise in interest rates. In that sense, the rise in interest rates can be said to be an “economic minefield,” and even Mr. Trump is forced to be on maximum alert (p123) tariff increases by country/region came into effect on 4/9 at 0:1 a.m., and even though only 13 hours had passed, the underground had also maintained a bullish stance until then, and the Trump administration suddenly changed its investigation drastically. And when responding to negotiations with America, it was decided that the additional amount of mutual tariffs would be extended for 90 days (p125)
・Even with government bonds, it does not mean that there are no safety risks; when exchange is necessary along the way, only that lower grade can be obtained if the market price is lower than face value, and evacuation to money or foreign assets, which are assets with even lower risk than international ones, occurs; money is a bank deposit or cash, but gold (gold) is also subject to evacuation destinations and the price recorded a record high in history (p128)
・The nature of the current trade friction between the US and China (target products: laptop computers, smartphones, etc.) is very different from the Japan-US trade friction in the 1980s. Friction in the 80s was centered on products that can be produced within America, such as automobiles, but it is almost impossible to rebuild the supply chain within America for electronic components. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that production of electronic components will expand and employment will increase in the United States (p151)
・2025/2/24 Apple announced that it will invest 500 billion dollars (about 75 trillion yen) in the United States over the next 4 years. The reason for this is to avoid tariffs, and since Apple wants to avoid tariff increases, it indicated a transaction condition of “investing within the United States” (p158)
・The “separation of powers” system, which seemed strong, has gradually changed since around the 1970s, and the most important change is a change in policy from the 1970s. With the introduction of the 1974 Trade Law, 1988 Comprehensive Trade Competitiveness Law, etc., the determination of tariff rates, which until then had been the authority of the parliament, was delegated to the president, and these measures were introduced during Japan-US economic friction from the 1980s to the 90s (p209)
・What shocked the world with China's Deepseek was that it was not necessary to use high-performance semiconductors for machine learning. It was shown (p251) that it is possible to develop advanced AI using only semiconductors that are possible under export restrictions by the Biden administration (p251) AI development requires learning large amounts of data in advance, and this requires a large amount of cost and time, but Deepseek explains that a method called “distillation” was used at this stage. “Distillation” is a method for streamlining machine learning by using another high-performance AI as a teacher. It has been reported that Deepseek, which can efficiently learn from AI that acts as a teacher without learning data from the beginning, learned from multiple AI such as meta (p253)
・Tariffs are basically imposed when goods (goods) move across a border, in other words, goods being imported and exported are completely dealt with. On the other hand, tariffs in the normal sense of the word cannot be imposed on service trade (consulting, software development, financial services, etc.), so if you switch from a structure that exports goods to a structure that exports services, tariffs will not be applied. Japan should focus on trade in services in the future (p291)
