・The Japanese economy has emerged from 33 years of deflation and is entering a new era of prosperity. It's not about the policy, it's the dawn brought about by the passage of 33 years (p introduction)
・Entering the inflationary era, debt of 1200 trillion yen will be relatively reduced compared to nominal GDP, tax revenue is a function of nominal GDP, so a natural increase in tax revenue is expected, and from now on, it should run in the direction of relatively reducing government debt with the huge engine of the private economy (p. introduction)
・Japanese stocks will begin a new blue market, and will continue to rise until around 2030, which is the 162nd year since the Meiji Restoration and the 162nd quarter period from the bubble ceiling at the end of 1989 (p. introduction)
・It's not about why Japanese stocks are rising or foreigners buying them. The correct answer is that it is nothing but de-deflation, then the 3200 trillion yen that has been accumulated by the private sector will go into expansion and reproduction (p43)
・From 2023/12 onwards, it seems that an upward wave of market prices will come again, and since the Nikkei Average will rise to 53,000 yen (p47), 2023 is 154.5 (618 quarter) from the Meiji Restoration, the huge bottomed out in the 73rd year since the 1950/7 Tosho low price (85.25 yen) is likely to continue for at least 5-8 years. (p49)
・The appreciation of the yen in 1995 (79.75) and the depreciation of the yen (151.95) in 2022 are abnormal values that appeared in the golden rule 54 and 27 since the dollar was cut, and the abnormal value in 2022 will not be exceeded in decadal units (p55) The yen exchange rate shows a strong appreciation of the yen due to recoil. 2028 is the target point, and when the market price at that time is based on the 308 yen standard (Japan's last fixed exchange rate, 308 yen determined by the 1971 Smithsonian Agreement), a market price of 59x4 = 236 and 308-236 = 72 yen is derived (p59)
・There are two methods to substantially cause currency depreciation in one's own country: 1) lowering domestic prices thereby making the real exchange rate cheaper; 2) lowering the exchange rate while maintaining domestic prices; the United States adopted the latter = inflationary policy and gradually raised domestic prices while avoiding a deflationary spiral; Japan created a substantial currency depreciation state by adopting policies that lower domestic prices without reducing the former = exchange rate; this is deflation It fell into a serious state of deflation due to such policies, and it became a system (relocation of production bases overseas, decline in domestic employment opportunities, drop in private consumption, acceleration of deflation = deflation spiral) even when deflation progressed (p74)
・The occurrence of deflation in developed countries such as Japan, where capital accumulation has progressed sufficiently as a capitalist country is extremely harmful; it is none other than “deflation is because people who do nothing see a good eye” occur (p113) prices fall = the value of money rises, and capital gains can be obtained simply by holding money without making them work. From 1995-2011, GDP deflators were actually It was 18%, and this was supposed to enjoy a cumulative gain of 18% price increases just by having cash, so long-term investments were not in line with the deflationary era (p115)
・Since the intrinsic value of gold does not change, when trying to display the nominal price of gold in dollars, it is necessary to change the evaluation only as the amount of dollars increases (regression phenomenon to intrinsic value). This regression phenomenon did not occur when reproduction with money flourished, and prices from 1980 to 2000 were weak and flat, and the total amount of money increased at a furious pace during that time, so the real price of gold crashed during this heyday of investment. Therefore, when this asset inflation ends and we enter an era of deflation where total settlement of asset inflation is carried out, the real price of gold, which had crashed until now, will return to the level it should have been due to evaluation changes due to settlement (p214)
・The bottom of gold was 2022.9 (1,620 dollars), and if you exceed 1950, which was an upper price resistance, it would be easy to double to 3800-3900, and even if you look modestly in 2029-2030, double to 3800 dollars, and if you follow the ratio so far, a market price exceeding 10,000 dollars may await (p219)
Read 2023/12/20
